This is the website for book “Economic Cycles, Debt and Demographics” by Carlos Alegria.
The first edition was published in July 2017 and due to recent world developments, I had numerous requests for an updated version of the book. Grudgingly, I set out to update the previous edition and in the process refined each section of the book and included extra material that I thought was relevant today and will be of high importance in the years to come. The improvements in the second edition are:
- A new chapter on inflation. It analyses the future prospects for persistent inflation in the years ahead due to demographics and central bank policy.
- A discussion on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on debt, demographics and societal changes.
- A deeper analysis of the political and social implications of ageing societies. Extreme risk aversion of aged societies seems to be leading towards authoritarianism in democratic societies.
- Pockets of demographic growth around the world.
- An analysis of the future demographic prospects of South American countries.
- Improved editing process as some readers who loved the topics discussed, found the first edition to be difficult to read at times. I thank them for their patience, and I believe this edition is a significant improvement.
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Since the 2008 crisis it seems the world has changed. The economic environment of today is very different from the one that existed just one generation ago. The baby boomers that arrived like a great wave after the Second World War drove the economy, and social change with it, but we are now living in the wake of the demographic bust that followed. Ageing populations and high debt levels are powerful forces that are slowing growth in developed countries. In the decades to come, these same forces will be acting on emerging markets too.
From the fundamentals of how demographic cycles have been propagated down the ages, to the impact on economic cycles and debt, and consequently the social, political and economic fates of nations, this book is full of practical insights to help you navigate the world of slow economic growth and population decline, as an individual, investor or policy-maker.
Meticulously researched, and backed by decades of real-world data, this book will explain:
- The macroeconomic challenges facing us in the coming years.
- Why the US will be one of the bright spots in a world of slowing growth.
- What the prospects are for persistent future inflation in the US.
- How the future of the European Union may be shaped by demographic changes.
- How India will replace China as the centre of world economic growth.
- Why China and South Korea will face “lost decades” akin to those experienced by Japan from the 1990s.
- Why Japan’s recent revival with Abenomics is set to fail once its second demographic bust arrives.
- The pockets of future demographic growth across the world.
- The impact of political responses to Covid-19 on countries’ debt and economic prospects.